Image: DfT
The high and fast uptake of connected and autonomous vehicles could see road traffic grow by as much as 54% between 2025 and 2060, according to the DfT.
The National Road Traffic Projections 2022 study provides long term projections of future road travel demand under a range of different plausible scenarios.
Under all the scenarios tested, traffic volume in England and Wales was projected to rise over the coming decades.
The biggest rise was seen in the technology scenario, which assumes high and fast uptake of connected and autonomous vehicles – and high and fast uptake of electric vehicles.
In this scenario, traffic is projected to grow by 54% between 2025 and 2060 – owing to increased trip making for the elderly and increased driving licence holding for all.
The RAC Foundation says the impact of autonomous vehicles on traffic depends on how the technology will be made available to the public.
Steve Gooding, director of the RAC Foundation, said: “There are currently 5.9 million licence holders aged 70 or over in Britain so we know the demand for mobility is there amongst those of a senior age.
“In the foreseeable future automated vehicles offer the tantalising prospect of independence for the many millions more people who fall into the older age group but for whatever reason – cost, medical impairment – don’t currently drive.
“The big question is not whether the technology will work, but how it will be made available? If everyone insists on having their own driverless car then traffic volume, and parking pressures, will rise.
“However, if we are prepared to access these vehicles ‘on demand’ and forego personal ownership then we could have a win-win situation: quieter roads, fewer cars shared by the many, and cheaper transport.”
The report warns that there is ‘significant uncertainty in long term travel demand’.
It says the factors with the biggest influence on future traffic volume are: population, economic growth, employment levels, number and type of households, fuel prices and fuel efficiency.
Under the projected scenarios, the most modest increase is estimated to be 8% – while under the ‘core’ scenario traffic could rise by 22%.
There will be corresponding growth in delays which could go up by anywhere between 6% and 85% over the same period.
However, under all of the projections tailpipe CO2e emissions from road transport are projected to fall by between 34% and 98% by 2060, says the DfT.
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