The first year of Wales’ default 20mph speed limit saw around 100 fewer people killed or seriously injured on 20mph and 30mph roads, statistics show.
Published by the Welsh Government, the data shows from October 2023 to September 2024, the number of collisions on 20mph and 30mph roads (combined) fell by 28% compared to the same period a year before.
The default speed limit was introduced on 17 September 2023.
Looking specifically at the period between July and September 2024, the number of casualties on roads with 20mph and 30mph road speed limits (combined) was the lowest Q3 figure since records began – and 35% lower than in the same quarter in 2023.
Ken Skates, cabinet secretary for transport and North Wales, said: “The data published today provides information for the first full year since the 20mph default speed limit was introduced.
“The picture continues to be encouraging with the number of collisions on our roads at their lowest level for this quarter. We know there is a way to go and we’ve always said it will take a number of years to see the full impact of the policy but to see the figures for this quarter at their lowest level is positive.
“We continue to build on the consensus that where 20mph is the right speed it works well. We have listened to people on the policy and we have empowered local authorities to make changes where it is safe to do so.”
Hugh
You need to improve your observation levels, and think more about human behaviour than the laws of physics.
I am making nothing up, and have caught careless pedestrians and dangerous overtakes on my dashcam.
I note that you do not respond to my comment that there is no evidence in the world that 20mph has reduced collisions or casualties.
Nor the fact that this thread is about the bogus claim of success for 20mph when the graph clearly shows a steady downward trend for over 10 years, without and with 20mph.
Eric Bridgstock, St Albans
--1
I haven’t experinced any of the seven negative consequences you have made up Eric. I walk, ride and drive in the real world. The phrase ‘clutching at straws’ comes to mind.
Hugh Jones, South Wirral
0
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MR ROD KING, Lymm
--1
Hugh
Your example is a gross over-simplification. There is much more to road safety than the speed of the vehicle.
You are not considering the negative consequences of 20mph traffic:
1. Roads “feeling safe” lead to less care/attention by pedestrians/cyclists
2. Slower vehicles make less noise and are therefore less likely to be noticed
3. Speeds lower than natural increase frustration and lead to inappropriate and dangerous overtaking
4. Human brains being tuned to pay attention to faster moving objects in peripheral vision, slower vehicles are less likely to be noticed
5. Speeds lower than “naturally safe” lead to lower concentration levels by drivers
6. Driver attention diverted to checking speed limit signs and speedometer
7. Driver priorities shifted from being safe to the belief that legal is safe
That’s why there is no evidence in the world that 20mph has reduced collisions or casualties.
This thread is about the bogus claim of success for 20mph when the graph clearly shows a steady downward trend.
Eric Bridgstock, St Albans
--5
Reading your first line Eric, I can ony presume that the laws of physics are perhaps different in St Albans than here in the North West.
Up here, driving on a trailing throttle, at under 20mph, if necessary, one can practically stop on the proverbial sixpence, thereby making collisions highly unlikely, if not impossible… that cannot be said for higher speeds.
Hugh Jones, South Wirral
0
No, Hugh, you have not understood. The idea that a slower car has more time to stop is a standard 20’s Plenty claim but it is not based on reality.
Most collisions involve misjudgment, poor observation or a lack of concentration – human error.
Investigation and analysis should determine the factors involved in a particular collision. From that, there may be recommendations for changes that could reduce the likelihood that a similar crash might be avoided.
I posit that there is never a sound argument that a reduced speed limit could have prevented it (although the authorities will often do that, or consider it – to be seen as doing something).
To give a specific example to support my view: a car crashes in a 30 limit while doing 50mph. If they were not complying with the 30, why would you assume that they would comply with a 20?
For true safety interventions such as seatbelts, anti-lock brakes, crash barriers, rear-foglights, laminated windscreen, chevrons, pelican crossings – the list is virtually endless – most people can easily explain how any of those can reduce collisions or casualties, and many will testify that their lives have been saved, or a crash has been prevented, by them. That cannot be done for a 20 limit.
Finally, if the ‘slower is safer’ mantra were true, we would see fall in, say, 20mph areas – but that is not the case.
Eric Bridgstock, St Albans
0
If I’ve understood Eric’s final question correctly, one doesn’t have to be Einstein to know that a vehicles doing around 20 mph or under, can be brought to a stop quicker and over a shorter distance than one moving at around 30 mph and thereby avoiding a collision..not to mention more time and space to spot the hazard causing one to brake in the first place. Mind you, this scenario obviously assumes drivers are driving under the 20 limit in the first place and therefore any collisions which do happen in 20 limits must be the drivers’ faults for not complying….not the authorities’ who imposed the limit.
Hugh Jones, South Wirral
+1
I return to my original comment – look at the long term trend.
And the drop around 2015-2018 (1000 down to around 650), well before COVID and 20mph, was quite remarkable.
So, still no reason to attribute any recent reduction to 20mph. Indeed, the drop may have been more if 30mph had been retained.
As I have said before, find a single example of a collision in 30mph for which it could credibly be claimed a 20mph limit could have prevented it. Without such an example, any claim for 20mph casualty reduction is wishful thinking.
Eric Bridgstock, St Albans
--2
I will try and explain it for you :-
From Oct 23 to Sep 24 compared to Oct 22 to Sep 23 in Wales
On 20mph and 30mph roads
Fatalities decreased from 34 to 24 -29%
Seriously injured decreased from 469 to 373 -20%
Slightly injured decreased from 1,899 to 1,327 -30%
On 40mph and higher roads
Fatalities increased from 58 to 61 +5%
Seriously injured increased from 533 to 585 +10%
Slightly injured decreased from 1,573 to 1,567 +0%
So what point are you actually trying to make Eric?
MR ROD KING, Lymm. Cheshire
+3
Rod
You have [conveniently] group all casualties together.
The picture is much worse looking at deaths and serious injuries, as separate groups.
Eric Bridgstock, St Albans
--1
The stats for the whole 12 months rather than the first 3 months in the article below shows a reduction of 678 casualties on 20mph/30mph roads in Wales and an increase of 49 on 40mph and higher roads.
Or to put it another way the reduced number of people suffering injury on 20mph/30mph limits was 13.8 times greater than any increase on 40mph and higher roads.
Holistically, that’s 629 fewer people injured or killed.
MR ROD KING, Lymm, Cheshire
--1
As noted on this site previously …
https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/deep-dive-good-and-bad-29329786
any drop in 20/30 has been offset by increases on other roads.
So no holistic success.
Eric Bridgstock, St Albans
--2
By analysing the Oct to Sep year on year casualty changes, which eliminate the “noise” of quarterly seasonal variations, we find that the biggest year on year reduction in casualties on 20/30mph roads from 2005 to 2019 was 12% from 2011 to 2012. In the Covid year of 2019 to 2020 the reduction was 23%. Yet from 2023 to 2024 there was a 28% reduction.
It begs the question “Did anything happen in Sept 2023 which could have influenced these figures?”
Of course you could also ask why insurance claims in Wales in the year after Sep 2023 dropped by 20% which was not replicated in England.
MR ROD KING, Lymm, Cheshire
--2
The trendline for this graph is remarkably linear, bar an expected glitch downward during COVID.
There is clearly no credible claim for a ‘extra’ road safety benefit from 20mph limits, as suggested by the headline on this item – 20mph did not ‘lead to a fall in casualties’.
Eric Bridgstock, St Albans
0